How Pacific ML Works
A guide to reading our predictions, confidence tiers, and markets.
The Three Confidence Tiers
High confidence predictions. Our model and AI agree strongly. Treat as your anchor leg.
- Probability ≥ 65%
- Positive edge vs market odds
- Strong recent form
Market may be under-pricing this outcome. Good risk/reward. Smaller stake recommended.
- Odds edge ≥ 15%
- Probability 50–64%
- Market inefficiency detected
Higher risk, higher reward. Model sees something the market hasn't priced in yet.
- Long odds with model backing
- Upset potential
- Small stake only
The Six Markets
Straight win/loss prediction for full time.
Winning margin band (e.g. 1–12 pts, 13–24 pts).
Combined half-time and full-time result.
Leading team at half-time and margin band.
Winning team at full-time and margin band.
Over/under total match points scored.
Staking with Kelly
The parlay builder shows a Kelly stake suggestion based on combined edge and odds. We use a 25% fraction for safety — never exceed this percentage of your bankroll on a single bet.
- •Conviction picks: up to Kelly recommendation
- •Value picks: half the Kelly recommendation
- •Speculative picks: small fixed stake (1–2%)
Using the Parlay Builder
Combine up to 10 legs for a multi
- • Click the + icon on any market row in the Picks page
- • The builder calculates combined odds, joint probability, and EV in real-time
- • The AI Advisor provides an independent 5-agent generated parlay with narrative
- • Stick to conviction + value legs for best long-term results